Forecasting COVID-19 Cases in Egypt Using ARIMA-Based Time-Series Analysis

Objectives: The World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a public health emer?gency of international concern on January 30, 2020. Since it was first identified, COVID-19 has infected more than one hundred million people worldwide, with more than two million fatalities. This study focuses on the interpretation of the distribution of COVID-19 in Egypt to develop an effective forecasting model that can be used as a decision-making mechanism to administer health interventions and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. Methods: A model was developed using the data collected by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and used it to predict possible COVID-19 cases in Egypt. Results: Statistics obtained based on time-series and kinetic model analyses suggest that the total number of CO?VID-19 cases in mainland Egypt could reach 11076 per week (March 1, 2020 through January 24, 2021) and the number of simple regenerations could reach 12. Analysis of the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and (2, 1, 3) sequences shows a rise in the number of COVID-19 events. Conclusion: The developed forecasting model can help the government and medical personnel plan for the imminent conditions and ensure that healthcare systems are prepared to deal with them.

A review of the characteristics and outcomes of 900 COVID-19 patients hospitalized at a Tertiary Care Medical Center in New Jersey, USA.

INTRODUCTION: There is a paucity of literature surrounding the in-hospital mortality and associated risk factors among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) affected patient populations in our geographical area, northern New Jersey. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort study was performed in a tertiary care academic medical center with two locations in Paterson and Wayne serving Passaic County in northern New Jersey. The study included all 900 patients with a positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) nasopharyngeal swab sample for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) viral test. We determined the in-hospital 75-day mortality of patients treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) compared to the medical-surgical floor unit. RESULTS: Overall in-hospital 75-day mortality was 40.7% (n = 367). The ICU group had a 77.1% (n = 237) mortality and the floor group a 21.9% (n = 130) mortality. The ICU group of patients had a higher incidence of cardiac injury, acute renal injury, liver failure, vasopressor use and the elevation of serum markers: ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, interleukin 6 (IL-6), D-dimer, procalcitonin, and C-reactive protein compared to the floor group. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that age > 65 years, elevated IL6, acute renal injury, cardiac injury, and invasive mechanical ventilation were risk factors associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Age > 65 years, elevated IL6, acute renal injury, cardiac injury, and invasive mechanical ventilation were risk factors associated with mortality in our COVID-19 patients.

Achieving superficial femoral venous access in a critically ill COVID-19 patient in the prone position.

A 63-year-old obese male was admitted with acute respiratory failure secondary to COVID-19. Day 13 the patient decompensated, lapsing into a critical stage of severe acute respiratory distress syndrome, requiring immediate prone positioning. The Rapid Response Team managed the emergency intervention for intubation but was unable to establish central access with the patient in the prone position. A consult to the Vascular Access Team succeeded in establishing central catheter placement with an ultrasound-guided mid-thigh superficial femoral 55-centimeter triple lumen catheter. The terminal tip of the catheter was confirmed in the mid portion of the inferior vena cava.